Interviews
Export sales continue to be slightly positive
02 Jun '07
3 min read
Unless shipments are as much a 450,000 to 500,000 bales during the current week, then look for USDA to lower its export estimate for the U.S. to 12.75--13.0 million bales in its June 11 world supply demand report. The 12.75 million bales export level appears more realistic for now.
The dastardly speculators are in a fairly unique position. Sensing that the market has not confirmed a bottom, they have the opportunity to press the market lower in search of its low. However, while time is likely running short for such an attempt, it is still very possible. I would not want to bet against it. Yet, such a dip would likely be short lived as the speculative money is definitely looking to take the market higher.
Alternatively, with the diminished need for the trade to hedge loan cotton, speculators could set off a short covering rally, pushing prices higher, taking profits, exiting the market and looking to join the ever increasing money that wants to take the market higher.
However, once again such a rally would likely prove to be short lived as any rally over 200 points is likely to be met with sizeable trade selling, i.e., remember the certificated stocks will keep the market in a treading water mode.
Reviewing both possibilities, the likelihood of a brief rally is likely the dominant position. That is, a market move of up to a MAXIMUM of 300 points is building momentum. Yet, it will not have any staying power, again remember the certificated stocks.
The dastardly speculators are in a fairly unique position. Sensing that the market has not confirmed a bottom, they have the opportunity to press the market lower in search of its low. However, while time is likely running short for such an attempt, it is still very possible. I would not want to bet against it. Yet, such a dip would likely be short lived as the speculative money is definitely looking to take the market higher.
Alternatively, with the diminished need for the trade to hedge loan cotton, speculators could set off a short covering rally, pushing prices higher, taking profits, exiting the market and looking to join the ever increasing money that wants to take the market higher.
However, once again such a rally would likely prove to be short lived as any rally over 200 points is likely to be met with sizeable trade selling, i.e., remember the certificated stocks will keep the market in a treading water mode.
Reviewing both possibilities, the likelihood of a brief rally is likely the dominant position. That is, a market move of up to a MAXIMUM of 300 points is building momentum. Yet, it will not have any staying power, again remember the certificated stocks.
O.A. Cleveland
Popular News
Leave your Comments
Esteemed Clients
-Ltd..jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Thermore (Far East) Ltd.")
.jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Telangana State Industrial Infrastructure Corporation Limited (TSllC Ltd)")
.jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Taiwan Textile Federation (TTF)")
