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Export sales disappointing with combined Upland & Pima cotton

Jun '07
Market was in full role mode today as we traded in a very narrow range up modestly across the board, but unable to test the highs from yesterday. July open interest was under 100K starting the day at 96,000 contracts.

We understand that there is quite a bit of spreads being done electronically which would explain why yesterday and today the electronic was over 70% of the activity instead of its normal percentage of 40%. Options were mildly friendly today as most of the action was taking place in the spreads for July/Dec between 550/580.

Export sales were disappointing with combined Upland and Pima along with cancellations of only 185,000 b/c which was 40% less than last week (China 80k, Indo 40k, Turkey 20k, and Hong Kong 20k).

However, the shipments were strong with the highest amount of the season with almost 20% more than last week at just over 400,000 b/c.

We are still behind schedule and this bump in shipments probably represents the large amount of cotton that was staged at the ports and was waiting for the big redemption during mid-May.

This number my start to come down next week as we get back to the average number recently of 300-350k going forward. We need to average 450K each week to hit the USDA number so that seems very unlikely and should be reflected on Monday.

Technically, we are still in the uptrend as we continue to close above the 50 daymoving averages and Z'07 has risen 600 pts from the lows only three weeks ago @ 51.50. The N'07 will find resistance @ 52.11 and 52.50 while the bears will look to test the lows near 51.20 and 50.75.

There should remain good trade scale up selling as the specs continue to push for buy stops. Wait to see how the market behaves on Friday as we prepare for the S&D report on Monday. As we get closer to N'07 expiration, the roll will be the main feature that may keep us stuck in a narrow range nearby.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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