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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - 8 June

Jun '07
Cotton futures tested three-week lows today at 51.20 but held up well as the market traded in the recent 100 point range 51.20/52.20. The Dec had a similar experience topping out at the 3 day high of 57.65 and made a new 3-day low of 56.80.

The majority activity of the day was rolling the N/Z around 560 pts. as the volume was over 40,000 futures about 50/50 electronic/open outcry and 9,000 in options.

There seemed to be some profit taking today as we are expecting a neutral S&D report on Monday and they are getting some rain in the northern Delta today and tomorrow which will help relieve the 3-week dry spell.

Grains, metals and energy were all down as well as the CRB fell considerably as the Dow Jones had a nice correction after two down days.

The market opened firm and even tested the highs as fresh buy stops were uncovered at 52.11, but the market managed to absorb the run by the specs and locals with good trade scale up selling.

This lead way to bearish options with heavy selling of Z'07 60 calls from 200 down to 180 pts. U.S. crop is improving and the monsoons in India have picked back up and are back on schedule. Cert stocks rose slight and the remaining loan stocks fell 277,000 bales.

Market seems to be caught in a narrow range ahead of option expiration where a large position is held in the 5200 strike and may create a large amount of resistance.

Technically, we are still in the uptrend as we continueto close above the 50 day moving averages and Z'07 has risen 600 pts from the lows only three weeks ago @ 51.50.

Technically, the 3 day low held up in the N'07 and the next area to be tested in the N'07 would be the 50.95 and later the gap between 50.60-50.25. The major spread range looks to be between 560/580 so we should continue to move in a sideways pattern.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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