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Offers push up cotton futures last week

Jun '07
Cotton prices began the week on a defensive tone due to warm drying conditions forecast for West Texas and bits of welcome rain in the Georgia growing areas from TS Barry. Even though the principal cotton areas of Georgia missed the really good stuff, they did receive ¾ to a 1 ½ on lands where seeds had been dusted in.

Tuesday gave us all a lesson in the power of electronic trading –when an unknown entity, probably a commodity fund, began aggressively buying July about 3 hours before opening of pit trading.

By the time they rang the opening bell Tuesday, the electronic market was already up 70 points. – buy stops were triggered in the pit and prices lurched to seven week highs where they stayed and consolidated the remainder of the week. ICE volume exceeded pit volume much of the week as well as exhibiting directional leadership much of the time.

July cotton finished the week up 94 points for the week. New crop December cotton ended 72 points higher for the week. That was the third week in a row that July has advanced and fourth for December. Fridays high was the highest since April 20th.

Of course, the fundamental reason behind the advance is rising world offering prices. USDA announced the Average World Price, or loan redemption rate, for this week at 4524, up 110 from the previous week.

The Loan deficiency payment drops to 6.76 cents per pound. It has only been three week but 512 points since the AWP bottomed at 4012 on May 17th. Using Fridays calculations, the AWP would be 4804 by the end of this month.

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