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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - 11th June

Jun '07
Market traded back up to the top of the extended range being forced between 51.20 and 52.20 based N'07. This range has also been evident in Z'07 as we have been moving in a very narrow range as the main feature seems to be rolling from July to Dec between 560-580 pts.

The open interest in N'07 continues to fall with N'07 now under 80,000 contracts as of this morning while Dec'07 is over 100K. As we approach FND for options, it is hard to see the market moving any large amount in either direction as we will probably see the spec hedge report tomorrow above 10%. Volume was strong again today with over 40,000 estimated futures contracts and 10,000 in options.

The USDA report was the main source of news today but only had a small effect on NY as the usual wave of buying on the open by specs and locals were unable to break through the highs. World ending stocks for 07/08 estimates were raised 500k to 51.23 mb's.

However, the majority of changes were made in the old crop 06/07 where the biggest changes were raising the Pakistan beginning stocks, 1.5 mb's and lowering Chinese imports 1.25 mb's. These two changes tended to offset each other and other than a few other tweeks, the U.S. ending stocks also went up 300k based on lowering the export number to 13 mb's.

Technically, we are still in the uptrend as we continue to close above the 50 day moving averages and Z'07 has risen 600 pts from the lows only three weeks ago @ 51.50. Technically, the 4day low held up in the N'07 and the next area to be tested in the N'07 would be the 50.95 and later the gap between 50.60-50.25.

The major spread range looks to be between 560/580 so we should continue to move in a sideways pattern.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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