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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - 12th June

Jun '07
Market traded in a very narrow range again today as the majority of activity was spent rolling the N'07 open interest out to Dec between 560/580. N'07 was close to 70,000 contracts as of this morning and the volume was big again today with over 50,000 futures and over 12,000 options.

Electronic trading represented about 40% as the open outcry has seen a large decrease in roll orders during this swap for the first time. The Goldman roll which should take 5 days is estimated to finish up tomorrow as we wait for options expiration on Friday.

Crop condition is showing 92% planted compared to the 93% 5-year average and the progress seems to be stable. The Delta did get some rain over the weekend, but the Mid south continues to need more moisture and West Texas needs less. Grains, metals and energy along with the Dow Jones were all down today as the $ index and wheat were two of the few winners.

Looking at the spec hedge chart on page 2, specs are looking like they may be at the top of their potential range as we are higher than they have ever been since trading above 200,000 open interest.

Technically, we are moving sideways in somewhat of a flagging pattern as the market is preparing to break out of the tight range in N'07 between 51.20 and 52.20. The spec hedge report showed a nice jump from last week as they moved to 13.1% long from 8.7%.

There is no doubt they have represented the buyers on this move and will continue to test the highs as we move into expiration. There seems to be good demand by mills trying to buy for July/August shipment on N'07 as they are concerned with the large spread to V'07 and Z'07.

N'07 seems to be caught in a range between 50/52 through expiration and then we will turn our attention to new crop.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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