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Chinese prices have bearing on light cotton futures yesterday

Jun '07
The market must have needed a break after all the action the last several sessions as we approached FND for N'07. Volume was very light today at only 11,000 futures and about the same in combined options.

Overnight prices in China had some weakness which was responsible for reaching the Z'07 E-trading low of 60.41 before the opening.

The notices were posted on Friday and did show a large issuer of over 1,200 contracts and another 400 today, but there was a good taker from J.P. Morgan which kept the spread trading in the recent range between 450/550 pts.

Most of the day was spent with N'07 near 55.50 and Z'07 between 60.60/60.90. Market seemed to want to go higher, but due to the light volume, it was trapped in a fairly narrow range.

Spec hedge report is due tomorrow and we are expecting another increase in the spec long position which was 23.1% last week. There is also an acreage report which will come out on Friday and most are expecting the number to be lower than the estimate at the end of march at 12.1 Million acres.

Grains were off again today as they continue their volatile trading pattern and weather could start to play more of a role going forward with so much corn planted in the South.

Technically, the market seems to be doing a bit of sideways consolidation as we look for more news to justify another test of the highs. Crop progress is maintaining at current levels and do not see anything very negative in theshort term.

With today's FND, we start to focus on Z'07 and whether we can keep the strong rally going that started on May 14th or we are ready for a pull back after a 10 cent rally.

The trend over the last five weeks has been to buy dips and this will remain the case as long as the specs keep buying.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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