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Acerage report loom largely over cotton markets

29
Jun '07
NY futures traded sideways this week, with December advancing just 13 points to close at 61.63 cents.

This week's trading activity can best be described as the proverbial 'calm before the storm' ahead of tomorrow's widely anticipated USDA acreage report.

Trading volume over the last five sessions combined amounted to just 60'000 futures contracts, which is about the same amount we traded in a single session when the market broke through resistance on June 20.

This is likely going to change tomorrow, since not only do we have the USDA acreage report, but there will also be plenty of 'end of month' and 'end of quarter' activity.

The latest spec/hedge report showed that the trade continued to sell into this recent strength and outright trade shorts amounted to 15.2 mio bales as of last Friday, which means the trade currently owns 3 out of every 4 shorts in the market.

Meanwhile, speculators continued to cover their once massive outright short position and they still have some 5.1 mio bales left that they could potentially cover.

On the long side, we have basically no trade participation at all at the moment, since in addition to the 10.6 mio bales in outright spec longs there are 9.7 mio bales of 'hedge' longs, but they are almost entirely owned by index funds.

The market seems to be at a near-term crossroad. From a bullish point of view it has held near recent highs and successfully rejected several attempts to break down below the former resistance area at around 60.70 cents, which now represents support.


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