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New Year to be year of 'High Cotton'
05
Jan '08
The 2008 New Year for cotton gives every promise to being "The Year of the Bull." With respect to promises, I am reminded that cotton promises less and gives more than any other crop. Said another way, 2008 will be the year of "High Cotton." (Of course the other part of that market adage is that cotton promises more and gives less than any other crop.)

It all depends on the hat you wear. Yet, with the nearby March seemingly comfortable at 68 cents, just slightly above its dominant range, but still within its long term price range, the reality of the upcoming significant decline in both U.S. and world cotton stocks appears to have creped in the market and is supporting prices at the upper end of the range.

We must watch the level of New York certificated stocks as well as demand, but just as 63 cents, basis the nearby futures, was the price low in from early October forward, it may well be that 67 cents will be the price low for the remainder of the year.

The annual Beltwide Cotton Conferences will be held next week with the venue in Nashville. There will be more than a few folks lining up to listen to the pundits discuss just how big the grain fed cotton bull will get before the slaughter. For me, I would think that bull will fatten up all the way into 2009.

The big export sales we have often seen through the New Year holidays failed to materialize this year. However, prices have once again left the textile mills behind…just as they did back at the 63 cent level in September-October. While a price setback is in order, the slippage will be both minor and short lived.


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