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Commodity market rides on a roller coaster

19
Mar '08
It was a quiet but undecided trading session Tuesday. After a weak Monday, the overall commodities market made sizable gains with around 760 point up movement. NY cotton futures early morning session was trading back and forth around unchanged level.

It then gained some ground following the grains market. The real fireworks came around 40 minutes to the pit close when volumes of put selling were seen in the options and buying activities were seen electronically. This created a pop in the market and formed today's high. The up momentum then gradually wore off with the session settled at 45 points lower on the May contract, 90 points lower on the July contract, and 89 points lower on the December contract electronically.

Despite the roller coaster action in the commodities market, stock market scored a good performance today. In expectation of the interest rate cut from the Fed, stock market opened up strong, and rose further after the confirmed three-quarters of a point rate cut.

Down Jones closed at 420 points, or 3.5% higher. The Fed rate has been cut six times since last September and is now 2.25%, the lowest since late 2004. As the rate cut by the Fed has become more and more aggressive each time, the inflation pressure has kept rising. So is the concern on the value of the dollar, which fell against the euro and pound after the Fed's announcement.

Technically, May contract filled the gap between 75.12 and 75.28 formed on Feb 22. RSI is back down to 44%. Currently we have a very bearish fundamental picture, and liquidation of the longs by speculators and hedge funds are further weakening the market.

We are back to where we were before the market ran up and created the island top. However, the market might finally attempt to settle down to reconnect with the cash market, and the fundamentals might eventually come back into play.

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