Interviews
Leading economic indicator declines 0.3%
21 Mar '08
3 min read
The coincident index was unchanged for the third consecutive month in February. Index levels were revised slightly lower for months November 2007 through January 2008, due primarily to downward revisions to personal income less transfer payments.
Employment has contributed negatively to the index for two consecutive months. The coincident index was unchanged between August 2007 and February 2008, and the strengths among its components have become less widespread in recent months. The lagging index increased again in February, and as a result, the coincident to lagging index has continued to decrease.
The leading index has been on a downtrend since the middle of 2007, and the weaknesses among its components have become very widespread in the last three months; the last time the leading index worsened for five consecutive months was in early 2001. Meanwhile, the growth in the coincident index has stalled in recent months, after gradually slowing throughout 2007.
At the same time, real GDP growth fell to 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, down from a 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter and an average of 2.2 percent, annual rate, in the first half of 2007. The current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that increasing risks for economic weakness are likely to continue in the near term.
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Employment has contributed negatively to the index for two consecutive months. The coincident index was unchanged between August 2007 and February 2008, and the strengths among its components have become less widespread in recent months. The lagging index increased again in February, and as a result, the coincident to lagging index has continued to decrease.
The leading index has been on a downtrend since the middle of 2007, and the weaknesses among its components have become very widespread in the last three months; the last time the leading index worsened for five consecutive months was in early 2001. Meanwhile, the growth in the coincident index has stalled in recent months, after gradually slowing throughout 2007.
At the same time, real GDP growth fell to 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, down from a 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter and an average of 2.2 percent, annual rate, in the first half of 2007. The current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that increasing risks for economic weakness are likely to continue in the near term.
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