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Markets trade in a narrow range

24
Apr '08
Market traded in a narrow range on light volume ahead of first notice day on Thursday. We did have some late volatility in the K/N'08 spread trading as wide as 475 points to as little as 300 while settling at 350 points where the majority of K'08 contracts rolled forward.

Grains were weak from the opening as well as metals and energy which weighed on the cotton market most of the day. Volume was light with only 18,000 futures and 5,000 options as the majority of activity were spent rolling out of K'08.

We only had 6,000 open contracts left in K'08 this morning and will have to see the notices this evening to find out who was left to play the delivery game. We could see some pressure on K'08 as it goes off the board with record cert stocks and apparently no strong taker in sight.

West Texas did receive some much needed rain today, but the market will continue to follow outside markets which are struggling to go higher. Export sales will come out tomorrow and they should be above last weeks levels of 150,000, but shipments will probably be the same near 300k. Open interest continues to fall near 250k which is not showing any strong spec or non commercial interest nearby.

Cotton followed the grains lower today after yesterdays bounce which confirms we could move sideways nearby. RSI at 44 does not give us any clear signal about which way the market will go, but specs are not showing up at the moment with open interest falling. The cotton market feels like we could move sideways short term with more down side testing in the future.

The stock market is still trading on the defensive and not ready to break out of the long term down trend established since December.

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