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Market continues to trade on light volume

09
May '08
Market continues to trade on light volume within the trading range established on May 1st when we put in the low of 68.52 and the high at 72.43. Since that day, we have been trading sideways on light volume as the cotton and grain markets are struggling to find a direction.

We did have better than expected accumulated export sales which were in line with last weeks record season high over 600k and the shipments were also on the high side near 300k. Volume was light again today with only 8,000 contracts and 8,000 options as the market waits for some more direction.

We will get the USDA report tomorrow morning to give us some guidance on ending stocks for all the commodities but not expecting any big changes for cotton. However, if we did get some positive guidance on the grains this could help break us out of this short term sideways trend channel.

Cert stocks continue to rise and the spreads on the board remain wide despite the record nearby sales being made recently. The rain this week in West Texas may have held the market in check as we are close to the seasonal low for this time of year.

NYF cotton prices are overall holding up well considering the bearish fundamentals as well as the beneficial rains this week in West Texas. Technically, we broke the strong support line at 70 cents in N'08 last week, but have closed above this level three days in a row.

The cotton market feels like we are trying to put in a short term low near 69 cents as we have had four continuous inside trading days.

However, the 69 cent level has proved to be a strong support yet again. We are likely to trade sideways and in sync with outside commodities for the nearby trading sessions.

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