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New York cotton futures regain lost ground

10
May '08
New York cotton futures regained the weeks lost ground on the heels of Thursday's export sales report. However, USDA's release of its May supply demand report brought caution to the market on Friday as both U.S. and world ending stocks estimates were significantly higher than the prior month.

That report, coupled with the ballooning level of certificated stocks, will keep the market on its heels until the end of the U.S. planting season. The sideways path is best for now. The old crop July should find support in the 68-70 cent level while the new crop December futures contract should be supported at 74 cents.

After consecutive weeks of lower prices, mills appear to be backing off the large purchases made the past three weeks. However any trade below 70 cents will again stir their interest. Yet, with certificated stocks now kissing 1.5 million bales, there will be little room for upward price movement. Yet, high quality cotton will continue to attract a premium as international mills attempt to improve yarn quality.

Today's USDA May supply demand report was expected to show higher ending stocks compared to the prior month. World carryover was increased near 1.9 million bales and is now estimated at 61.55 million bales. However, this increase resulted from adjustments of prior year estimates which increased the level of beginning stocks for the current marketing season the same 1.9 million bales. Thus, the changes in 2007-08 world production and world consumption estimates were little changed from the April report.


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