Crop conditions remain favorable in West Texas

23 Aug '08

2 min read

Market ran into some upside resistance today above 70 cents and there was a reversal in oil and the dollar from yesterday. The stock market bounced off the friendly dollar and pull back in oil after it closed near 122 usd yesterday. Dollar almost bounced back to 77 and the commodities fell in grains and cotton.

We are still seeing very little volume in cotton with only 6,000 contracts today and the open interest remains on the lows. We seem to be setting up for a sideways trading range between 67/72 and right now we are in the middle. Crop conditions remain favorable but there is still a lot of uncertainty with the late crop out in West Texas.

We will have to see how the next 6 weeks treats the crop and baring any early freeze in West Texas we should see some upside to the USDA production numbers. Olympics ends this weekend and will have to see if that will give the Chinese economy a jump start in the 4th quarter.

Technicals are turning friendly with the MACD starting to cross higher in cotton is already there and making a nice turn higher. Grains and the CRB gave back some of the gains from yesterday as the dollar and stock market benefited from the pull back.

Considering the low open interest in cotton and the lack of demand, cotton feels like we may continue in a sideways trading range up to heavy resistance at 72.00. This will depend on how much the rebound in outside markets can follow through, but the short term upside looks limited and we may see a correction next week in cotton if we cannot break through 72.00 cents.

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