Cotton production projected to fall in 2008-09
The International Cotton Advisory Committee has recently released figures on global cotton stocks, production and consumption. At the beginning of the new cotton year 2008/09 (which starts from August and ends in July), total cotton stocks stood at 12.17 million tons compared to 12.40 million tons in of the beginning of last cotton year 2007/08.
Production for the cotton year 2007/08 is estimated at 26.24 million tons and projection of cotton year 2008/09 at 24.73 million tons. Consumption in the same comparable period stands at 26.56 million tons and 26.25 million tons respectively.
World cotton mill consumption is expected to decline by 1% in 2008/09 to 26.2 million tons, due to slower global economic growth and higher prices of cotton relative to polyester.
World cotton mill utilization increased continuously between 1998/99 and 2006/07, rising by 8 million tons, but was stable in 2007/08 at 26.6 million tons and is projected to go down in 2008/09.
Cotton mill consumption is expected to decrease in 2008/09 in Turkey, the United States, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, Thailand, Russia, China (Taiwan), and the Republic of Korea.
However, cotton mill utilization is expected to continue to increase, more slowly, in China (Mainland), Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam. The share of Asia in world cotton mill use is expected to rise from 76% in 2007/08 to 77% in 2008/09.
Global cotton stocks are seeing an increase in their levels with each passing year. Cotton stocks which stood at 8.78 million tons in the beginning of cotton year 2004/05 grew considerably to 11.73 million tons in 2005/06 and further increased to 12.33 million tons in 2006/07.
Cotton stocks for 2007/08 are estimated to grow marginally to 12.40 million tons and are envisaged to reduce to 12.17 million tons and a drastic 10.66 million tons in the cotton years 2008/09 and 2009/10 respectively.
Global cotton production is seeing a reducing trend in the last few years. From a high of 27.02 million tons in the cotton year 2004/05, it dipped to 25.53 million tons in 2005/06 to rise to 26.63 million tons in 2006/07.
In the cotton year 2007/08, production of cotton was able to maintain stability and is expected to hit 26.24 million tons. But on the other hand, projection made for 2008/09 show a dip and is expected to reach only 24.73 million tons but is anticipated to grow again in 2009/10 to 25.91 million tons.
China is expected to become the largest producer in cotton year 2007/08 with an estimated production of 8.08 million tons. India follows at second place with 5.36 million tons. USA with 4.18 million tons, Pakistan 1.85 million tons, Brazil 1.56 million tons, Uzbekistan 1.21 million tons and other countries with 4.02 million tons make up for rest of cotton production across the world.
The main point worthy of note is that cotton production of India has grown at a very brisk pace. It was only 4.13 million tons in cotton year 2004/05, but is expected to touch 5.36 million tons in 2007/08 for a growth of a remarkable 29.53 percent in a period of just three years.