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Cotton may see more upside in short term

23
Sep '08
Just when we thought the bad news was behind us and the stock market was ready to rally, we got a fresh wave of inflationary concern which killed the dollar and pushed commodity prices to new highs. Cotton took advantage of the run up as well and we may be looking for some more upside in the short term.

The volume was lighter than usual with 11,000 futures and 5,000 options as we keep seeing open interest slide lower to under 210k today. Looking at page 2 in attached PDF, we continue to see a lack of interest in the specs as we cam back slightly to .3% long.

We also have some potentially bad news coming out of Galveston with over 200k bales which may be lost to Hurricane Ike. Oil got caught in an expiration squeeze as many shorts had to cover before first notice day and this alone had oil up over 20%.

Gold also closed above $900 and grains closed near limit up levels. The dollar fell almost 2% and we look to be back in a commodity rally once again. There will be good scale up selling in cotton over 65 cents, but it could make a run at 70 in the short term.

Technicals are starting to turn positive and we certainly were due for a bounce after grinding below 60 cents last week. RSI is at 30 and we found good demand at the 60 cent level in Z'08 so this recent bottom should hold up over the short term. This will depend on outside markets, but the current financial crisis should pump money into the commodity sector.

The weak economic conditions are hitting Asia as well as Europe and there does not appear to be an end nearby. Need to see how the global markets react this week, but with commodity prices bouncing hard today, it looks like we are in for a bounce in cotton which could try and test resistance at 65/68/and 70 cents.

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