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Cotton market trades higher

15
Oct '08
Cotton traded over 200 pts higher during the early morning before closing near unchanged by the end of the day. Dow Jones stock market also had a strong early run up over 300 pts higher before closing near unchanged before the end of the day. Other commodities did the same as we are still stuck in fear and uncertainty which does not allow the markets to trade on their own.

Volume was average with 12,000 futures and 12,000 options as open interest keeps falling each day. Demand has been very firm lately coming off the Ramadan break and the Labor day holiday in China. We are seeing most inquiries for nearby shipment, but some are for the first quarter next year. Specs keep liquidating as we are now 7% short compared to 4.7% last week.

The momentum downward may have come to an end as we finally got some stability in the financial markets today. The fundamentals are much stronger and with a few sideways trading sessions we could start to see a better technical picture as well.

The U.S. economic picture became a bit brighter this week as the stock markets found some support and this may lead to a commodity bounce. With RSI at 25, we have reached extremely oversold conditions and should be ready for at least a consolidation possibly in the 50-55 cent range for Z'08.

Grains have held firm over the last several sessions which signals they are also ready for a bounce.

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