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Market looks gloomy on Friday

25
Oct '08
Things looked gloomy Friday right at the beginning of the day. All European and Asian stock markets took a dive with the major benchmark indices tumbling up to 10 percent. On limit down move by S&P 500 and the Dow Jones futures, Wall Street opened up much lower by dropping nearly 500 points at one time. Dollar index continued to show strength which drove down the commodity prices.

Assisted by bearish options, cotton tested to the low side in the early morning and made a limit down move on both December and March contracts. As the dollar came off from its high of the day, the nervous market received a much needed rally to recover part of the losses. Sell off came in at the end of the session when traders got ready for the weekend, which settled the day with a hefty loss of 285 points on Z'08 and 300 points on H'09.

Trading remained choppy and volatile during the course of the week and the open interest managed to stay stable at the 270k area. Today's traders commitment report revealed the same story when big specs and index traders continued reducing their exposure in cotton. The Index funds reduced another 6,000 contracts in their net holdings. Lifting hedges on sales on the other hand, the non commercials reduced their net short positions by close to 5,000 contracts.

Technicals are looking more stabilized this week after the bounce at the beginning of the week, but world economy situation is continuing to deteriorate. Growth in Asia is slowing down and there's plenty of nervousness in Europe.

RSI is at the low 30's area, and MACD is undecided making a double cross. Scale down demand was seen with the spot month under 50 cents and the two continuous export reports have shown decent numbers. We are now approaching the December contract low of 45.66 established just last week, and it's very likely for the market to make another run towards this level sometime in the near future.

Ecom USA


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