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Cotton prices continued their decline in Oct - Cotlook A Index

04
Nov '08
Cotton prices continued to decline in October. The Cotlook A Index has decreased continuously since the beginning of the season, and is now 29% lower than it was in early August 2008.

Global cotton mill use is projected to decline by 3% in 2008/09, to 25.5 million tons. In particular, mill use in China (Mainland) is expected to decline by 4% to 10.5 million tons due to rising costs of production, the strength of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, and slowing demand from textile importing countries.

World cotton production is expected to decline by 6% in 2008/09, to 24.7 million tons, due mainly to competition from alternative crops. The production drop is driven by the United States, but the 2008/09 crops are also expected to be smaller in Turkey, Brazil and Egypt. Cotton production is projected to increase in India, Pakistan and Australia.

Due to declining mill use, world cotton imports are now forecast to decline by 6% in 2008/09, to 7.8 million tons. Imports by China (Mainland) are expected to decrease by 10% to 2.3 million tons.

The ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index at 73 cents per pound. However, the Secretariat believes that the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index may actually be in the lower half of the 95% confidence interval, between 64 and 73 cents per pound.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology.

International Cotton Advisory Committee


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