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Cotton futures touch near about August '04 lows

07
Nov '08
We keep setting new contract lows and today put us very close to the multi-year low from August 2004 at 42.60 c/lb. Looks like we will aim to take that out very soon as all markets remain weak. Energy, metals and grain all took a hit during the day as we keep sliding lower with no help from the weak stock markets and strong dollar.

Bearish options with Z'08 expiration on Friday is also a big reason we are not finding much upside momentum. Volume was better than average today with 22,000 futures and 7,000 options and we finally had a significant increase in open interest with a new 4600 contracts reaching 174k.

Sales and exports were better than expected but still not very friendly with only 241k and 192k in shipments. We are getting steady scale down demand, but the real problem is the uncertainty in the depth of this recession and how much demand will fall. Cotton has taken out almost every target to the downside and we are unable to find support fundamentally or technically that can help us break out of the trend lower. The European market took very strong steps today to support the sagging economy.

The biggest of which was a 150 point cut to 3% in England which was the biggest since 1955 during Churchill. This will support the dollar and be negative for commodities.

Technically we are trying to build a bottom, but it has been a very difficult process. The stock market weakness and strong dollar are two major factors why we cannot hold a bottom. Cotton is still finding good demand at these levels, but the new crop is in full harvest at the moment and that is keeping a lid on the market.

RSI is still in the low 30's, and MACD is undecidedly making a double cross. So much for an election bounce and may take until the first quarter to see some significant attempt to invest new money.

We are way over due for a rally but the dollar stays strong and that will keep pressure on the markets.

Ecom USA


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