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Cotton trade will rebound in 2010/11

12
Jun '10
World 2010/11 cotton production is forecast at 114.3 million bales, up 11 percent from the previous year, and reversing the output decline that began three years ago. This expected rebound comes on an improving global economic outlook—that is expected to ease credit conditions—and the continuing strong demand for the fiber. Production is expected to rebound in most major cotton-producing countries. Australia is forecast to produce 2.2 million bales in 2010/11, a 38-percent increase from a year earlier as weather conditions and water availability improve. Brazil and China are forecast to increase production, by 18 percent and 2 percent, to 6.8 million bales and 33 million bales, respectively. India's 2010/11 production is forecast at 25.0 million bales, up 6 percent from the preceding year and the highest on record. Production in Pakistan and Uzbekistan is forecast at 10.5 million bales and 4.6 million bales, up 6 percent and 12 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. The United States is forecast to produce 16.7 million bales, up 37 percent from the previous year.

Total area to be harvested in 2010/11 is forecast at 32.4 million hectares, up 7 percent from the previous year. Area increases are expected in most major cotton producing countries including Brazil, China, and the United States. Cotton area in Brazil is forecast at 975,000 hectares, up 17 percent from the previous year. China is expected to increase area in 2010/11 by 2 percent to 5.4 million hectares. Australia's 2010/11 area is forecast to rise by 25 percent to 250,000 hectares. India's 2010/11 area is forecast to increase 0.4 percent at 10.3 million hectares. The largest increase is expected in the United States, where harvested area is forecast at 4.0 million hectares, a 31-percent gain.

World Cotton Trade to Continue Rebound in 2010/11
Global cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 36.1 million bales, a 2-percent increase from the preceding year and equivalent to one-third of global production in that year. Of the major importing countries, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports to 11.5 million bales (up 6 percent), 4.25 million bales (up 6 percent), 2.2 million bales (up 5 percent), and 1.9 million bales (up 12 percent), respectively. These import increases are partially offset by declines in other countries, such as Turkey and Russia. Turkey is expected to import 2.5 million bales, down 26 percent from the previous year, while Russia's cotton imports in 2010/11 are forecast to further decline 4 percent to 675,000 bales. In South Korea, Thailand, and Mexico, 2010/11 imports are forecast to remain unchanged from the previous year at 1.0 million bales, 1.8 million bales, and 1.5 million bales, respectively.

Most of the 2010/11 global export supplies are expected to come from Australia, Brazil, India, the United States, and Uzbekistan, which together are forecast to account for over 70 percent of global trade. Australia's 2010/11 cotton exports are forecast at about 1.9 million bales, up 4 percent from a year ago, while Brazil's exports are forecast at 2.2 million bales, a 10-percent increase from the previous year. The United States, the world's leading cotton exporter, is forecast to increase exports 10 percent to 13.5 million bales. Exports for India and Uzbekistan are forecast to decline 11 percent and 5 percent to 5.7 million bales and 3.6 million bales, respectively, as sharply lower beginning stocks are reducing exportable supplies there.


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