Philippines inflation to stay within 2–4% until 2027: Central bank

08 Jul '25

2 min read

Philippines inflation to stay within 2–4% until 2027: Central bank

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Insights

The Philippines' central bank, BSP, expects inflation to stay within the 2–4 per cent target until 2027, driven by easing food prices, especially rice.
June 2025 inflation stood at 1.4 per cent, matching BSP's forecast.
While oil prices pose a risk, global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions may dampen growth.
BSP signals a more accommodative policy.

The Philippines inflation rate is projected to remain comfortably within the government’s target range of 2 to 4 per cent until 2027, citing easing food prices—particularly rice—as a key driver, according to the country’s central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

This outlook followed the Philippine Statistics Authority’s report showing that headline inflation in June 2025 settled at 1.4 per cent, aligning with the BSP’s forecast range of 1.1 to 1.9 per cent.

Inflation is expected to remain below the lower end of the target range in 2025 due to continued declines in rice prices, though rising global oil prices could exert upward pressure. For 2026 and 2027, inflation is forecast to stay within target levels.

The BSP reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price stability by ensuring that its monetary policy remains supportive of sustainable economic growth and employment, as reported by the Philippine media.

“Global economic activity is showing signs of deceleration, influenced by uncertainty over US trade policy and ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. These developments may contribute to slower domestic growth,” said BSP.

“On balance, a more accommodative monetary policy stance is warranted. Emerging risks to inflation from rising geopolitical tensions and external policy uncertainty will require closer monitoring, alongside the continued assessment of the impact of prior monetary policy adjustments,” added BSP.

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