Authorities aim at raising gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to about $8,500 by 2030 from around $5,000 in 2025, implying a target of at least 10 per cent annualised real GDP growth.
Continuity of the country’s top leadership should help support policy implementation and advance the reform agenda, it noted.
Communist Party general secretary To Lam was recently confirmed for a second term till 2030 at the National Congress.
This lowers political uncertainty after leadership turnover in recent years. It will likely support effective execution of policy priorities, including lifting productivity through support for technology and innovation, greener growth and continued infrastructure spending, the rating agency observed in a note.
Meeting that target would likely require sustained investment, continued strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, particularly into technology-linked and higher value-added manufacturing, and greater productivity gains supported by structural reforms.
It would also depend on steady access to major export markets, leaving Vietnam exposed to shifts in trade conditions and swings in global demand, Fitch Ratings remarked.
The rating agency expects the effective US tariff rate on imports from Vietnam to increasingly weigh on export momentum, even though recent growth has been resilient.
Vietnam also faces heightened enforcement scrutiny as it sits between the United States and China in increasingly complicated and potentially fragmented supply chains, with goods deemed transhipped through Vietnam or to contain substantial Chinese inputs potentially facing an additional 40-per cent US tariff, it noted.
These pressures underscore the challenges given Vietnam’s deep economic and trade ties with both economies, it added.
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