US import cargo to surge amid temporary tariff relief on Chinese goods

Retailers, who had halted orders after the April announcement of a 145 per cent tariff, resumed imports after the rate was reduced to 30 per cent and a 90-day pause was introduced, lasting until August 12.

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in a press release.

US ports handled 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in April, up 2.9 per cent from March and 9.6 per cent year on year. However, volumes are expected to have dropped in May to 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4 per cent month on month and 8.1 per cent year on year, marking the first annual decline since September 2023.

Despite the slowdown, imports are projected to rebound from June through August, though remaining below 2024 levels. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEU (down 6.2 per cent YoY), July at 2.13 million TEU (down 8.1 per cent), and August at 1.98 million TEU (down 14.7 per cent). A sharper drop is expected later in the year due to strong comparisons against high 2024 volumes driven by port strike concerns.

“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”

The first half of 2025 is now forecast at 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent year on year—an improvement from earlier estimates but still trailing pre-tariff projections.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)