US import cargo volume to be down in H1 2026: NRF

“The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in the report.

The immediate impact on containerised traffic to the US is not likely to be substantial since little US-bound container cargo is sourced from the region, Hackett noted.

“While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and US manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term,” Hacket added.

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU, i.e., one 20-foot container or its equivalent) in January, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have not yet reported their data. That was up by 3.8 per cent from December, but down by 6.4 per cent year on year (YoY).

Ports have not yet reported numbers for February, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.01 million TEU, down by 1.3 per cent YoY.

March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down by 11.2 per cent and April at 2.03 million TEU, down by 8.1 per cent while May at 2.09 million TEU, up by 7 per cent and June at 2.1 million TEU, up by 6.8 per cent. July is forecasted at 2.2 million TEU, down by 8 per cent.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down by 2.5 per cent YoY.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)