World Bank expects Indian economic growth to be robust

21 Jun '16

5 min read

“There are good reasons for confidence in India's near-term prospects. However, a pickup in investments is crucial to sustain economic growth in the longer term. The recently approved Bankruptcy Code is helpful in this regard, and once it is implemented it will help unleash the productivity that Indian firms need in order to create jobs and become globally competitive,” said Onno Ruhl, World Bank Country Director in India.

In less than three decades, India's financial sector has evolved from an essentially state-controlled system toward one with greater participation of private banks and generally more competition. Banks currently have capital levels in excess of regulatory requirements, regulations have been strengthened, and overall credit growth in real terms has been resilient. On the other hand, concerns have arisen about growing non-performing assets (NPAs) and declining credit growth, particularly in public sector banks (PSBs).

The Update suggests two key reform fronts for the financial sector. First, accelerate the ongoing structural transformation of the sector toward one that is more market-oriented and competitive, for example by providing a roadmap for relaxing government mandates on banks. Second, address the NPA challenge, both by its branches (through recapitalization of PSBs and providing tools for banks to manage stressed assets), and its roots (through stronger governance of both commercial banks as well as the corporate sectors that have generated the largest share of NPAs).

“India's financial sector has performed well on many dimensions and can be a reliable pillar of future economic growth. However, accelerating structural reforms and addressing the non-performing asset (NPA) challenge remain urgent tasks,” said Frederico Gil Sander, Senior Country Economist and main author of the India Development Update.

An analysis of the FY17 budget documents of 20 states suggests all states gained following the implementation of the 14th FC recommendations in FY16, but the extent of gains varied significantly. Tax devolution increased everywhere, even for states that saw a reduction in their inter-state share, such as Bihar and Rajasthan. Overall, transfer of grants to states increased by 0.7 per cent of GDP in FY16 compared to the budget estimate of a net increase of 0.5 per cent. (SH)

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