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Net impact of trade deal with US on India's GDP to be nearly 1.1%: SBI

14 Feb '26

2 min read

Net impact of trade deal with US on India's GDP to be nearly 1.1%: SBI

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Indian exporters may raise their exports of top 15 items to the US by $97 billion a year following the US-India trade deal, SBI estimates.
Including the remaining items, the potential may easily cross $100 billion, it said.
The net impact of the deal on India's GDP would be close to 1.1 per cent.
An indirect impact in the form of forex reserves savings due to zero or reduced US import duty is $3 billion.

Indian exporters may increase their exports of top 15 items to the United States by $97 billion a year following the US-India trade deal, as per preliminary estimates by State Bank of India (SBI) economists.

Including the remaining items, the potential may easily cross $100 billion, the bank’s research division said in a fact sheet.

The United States has yearly potential of more than $50 billion worth imports in India (ex services).

India’s trade surplus with the United States, which was $40.9 billion in fiscal 2024-25 (FY25) and $26 billion between April and December last year, could cross $90 billion annually, the SBI experts noted.

The net impact of the deal on India’s gross domestic product (GDP) would be close to 1.1 per cent.

An indirect impact in the form of savings in foreign exchange reserves due to zero or reduced US import duty is around $3 billion; with import substitution the savings may be higher, the SBI experts said.

While US share in India’s exports is nearly 20 per cent, its share in India’s imports is only close to 7 per cent. However, in some of the commodities, the US share is as much as 20-40 per cent, which will further increase as India decides to reduce the tariff.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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