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US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025: The Conference Board

25 Jan '25
3 min read
US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025: The Conference Board
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Insights

  • The Conference Board expects US growth momentum to be strong as 2025 began and real GDP to expand by 2.3 per cent in the year.
  • Its leading economic index for the US fell by 0.1 per cent in December to 101.6, after an upwardly-revised 0.4-per cent rise in November.
  • Its coincident economic index for the country rose by 0.4 per cent in December to 114.1, following a 0.2-per cent rise in November.
The Conference Board expects US growth momentum to remain strong at the beginning of this year and real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 2.3 per cent in the year.

The think tank’s leading economic index (LEI) for the country inched down by 0.1 per cent in December last year to 101.6, after an upwardly-revised increase of 0.4 per cent in November. The LEI declined by 1.3 per cent over the second half of 2024, slightly less than its 1.7-per cent decline over the first half of the last year.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.

“Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline. Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December. Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at the think tank in a release.

The think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for the country rose by 0.4 per cent in December 2024 to 114.1, following a 0.2-per cent increase in November. As a result, the CEI increased by 0.9 per cent in the six-month period ending December 2024, slightly higher than its 0.7 per cent growth over the previous six months.

The CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.

The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US.

All these improved in December, with the largest positive contribution coming from industrial production, which contributed negatively in three out of the past six months. This was followed by personal income less transfer payments, payroll employment, and manufacturing and trade sales.

The think tank’s lagging economic index (LAG) for the country increased by 0.1 per cent to 118.5 in December, after an increase of 0.2 per cent in November. However, the LAG’s six-month growth rate remained negative at 0.5 per cent over the second half of 2024, a partial reversal from its 0.8-per cent increase over the first half of 2024.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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