US energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to drop 25-38 per cent below what they were in 2005 by 2030, as per a US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. EIA’s projected reductions in US energy-related CO2 emissions are driven by increased electrification, higher equipment efficiency, and the deployment of renewables in the electric sector. Emissions reductions are limited, however, by longer-term growth in US transportation and industrial activity.

By the end of the projection period, 2050, US energy-related CO2 emissions are 17 per cent lower in this year’s reference case compared with last year, after EIA accounted for the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), energy technology costs and performance updates, a changed macroeconomic outlook, and other factors, according to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023).

“With policy changes over the last year and continued technology innovation, we expect to see significant shifts in energy production and use over the next 30 years,” said EIA administrator Joe DeCarolis. “The resulting projections for energy-related CO2 emissions are most sensitive to our assumptions regarding economic growth and the cost of zero-carbon generation technology.”

The AEO2023 report highlighted that the EIA sees stable growth in US electric power demand through 2050 in all AEO2023 cases because of increasing electrification and ongoing economic growth. Investment in renewable sources such as wind and solar, and the operating cost advantage of those sources, increases the share of zero-carbon electricity generation in EIA’s projection.

The report also highlighted that despite no significant change in the domestic consumption of petroleum and other liquids through 2040 across most AEO2023 cases, the EIA expects US production to remain at historically high volumes. Domestic natural gas consumption also remains relatively stable, despite a shift in electricity generation towards renewables. Production of natural gas, however, continues to grow in response to international demand for liquefied natural gas.

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