The latest economic outlook released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects global growth to decelerate sharply to around 3 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2023, well below the recovery projected in the outlook released last December.  The economic and social impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is the strongest in Europe.

High inflation is eroding household incomes and spending, hitting vulnerable households particularly hard. The risk of a serious food crisis remains acute for the world’s poorest economies because of the high risk of supply shortages and elevated costs, the report says.

Further increases in food and energy prices and persisting supply-chain bottlenecks are key factors causing consumer price inflation to peak at higher levels and remaining high for longer than previously projected.

In some advanced economies, inflation is now expected to reach levels not seen since the 1970s. Cost pressures should start to ease with the impact of rising interest rates beginning to be felt till 2023. However, core inflation is still projected to remain at or above central bank target ranges in many major economies, it says.

“Countries worldwide are being hit by higher commodity prices, which add to inflationary pressures and curb real incomes and spending, dampening the recovery,” OECD secretary general Mathias Cormann said during the presentation of the outlook.

“This slowdown is directly attributable to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression, which is causing lower real incomes, lower growth and fewer job opportunities worldwide,” he said.

Uncertainty around the outlook is high, marked by prominent downside risks. Many low-income and emerging-market economies will be challenged even more by rising food and energy prices, slower demand growth in their export markets, and the potential for capital outflows as interest rates rise in the advanced countries, the report says.

Furthermore, the pandemic is not over; more aggressive or contagious variants may emerge, and zero-COVID policies in China may continue to disrupt supply chains.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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