US think tank The Conference Board recently projected year-over-year (YoY) real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will moderate to 7.4 per cent in India this year before slowing to 4.6 per cent in 2023. Rising new COVID-19 cases, slowing global demand, and a contracting housing market will continue to weigh on the growth outlook for China, it said.

The Conference Board leading economic index (LEI) for India increased by 1.3 per cent in August this year to 153.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 per cent decrease in July, while the same for China fell by 0.3 per cent in the month to 165.1, following a 0.5 per cent decline in July.

The US think tank’s coincident economic index (CEI) for India fell by 1.8 per cent in August to 150.1, following a 2.8 per cent decline in July, while the same for China rose by 0.3 per cent to 140, after a 0.4 per cent rise in July.

The LEI for India improved by 5.7 per cent in that six-month period, faster than the 4.4 per cent growth over the previous six months. The CEI for the country increased by 7.7 per cent in that six-month period, a slowdown from the 8.4 per cent increase in the previous six-month period.

“While the economy [for India] should continue expanding in the near-term, the pace of growth is likely to moderate into next year. High inflation, rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and recessions in several large economies create headwinds for growth in emerging economies, including India,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.

The LEI for China contracted by 4 per cent for the February-August 2022 period, a reversal from its 4.6 per cent growth over the previous six months, while its CEI contracted by 0.3 per cent in that six-month period, a reversal from its 5.6 per cent growth during the previous six months.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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