Latest USDA report up's US 2015 cotton output

23 Sep '15

4 min read

The USDA in its latest report has revised upward, estimates for the 2015 US cotton crop which is now forecast at 13.4 million bales, 346,000 bales above last month's forecast.

According to the USDA, September's projection is a 2.6 per cent increase from August, resulting from an expected increase in harvested area which was partially offset by a lower yield.

“However, total 2015 US cotton planted area was reduced nearly 4 per cent in September based on acreage reported to USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA),” USDA said.

Planted area was estimated at about 8.6 million acres by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), while harvested area was forecast at 8.2 million acres from the 7.9 million acre forecast in August.

“As a result, abandonment is projected at 4.5 per cent, compared with 15 per cent in 2014,” the US agricultural agency averred.

The national yield has been projected at 789 pounds per harvested acre, 49 pounds below 2014 and the lowest since a similar yield was recorded in 2011.

US upland production is forecast at approximately 13 million bales, 17.5 per cent below the 2014 crop and 2.4 million bales below the five-year average.

“During the previous 20 years, the September upland cotton forecast was below the final estimate 11 times and above it 9 times,” USDA informed.

“Past differences between the September forecast and the final upland estimate indicate that chances are two out of three that 2015 production will range between 12.1 and 13.8 million bales,” it explained.

Even with an increase in the September forecast, the Southwest upland crop is still projected below 2014 as at 6.1 million bales, the 2015 crop is only 400,000 bales below a year ago.

“Beneficial rainfall this growing season has kept abandonment expectations low as abandonment for the Southwest is estimated at only 6 per cent, compared with the five year average of 36 per cent,” USDA noted.

As a result, USDA has projected harvested area near that of last season while yield has been estimated at 618 pounds per harvested acre, compared with the five-year average of 642 pounds.

In the Southeast, cotton production has been forecast at 4.2 million bales in 2015, one million bales below last season.

USDA further added that while 2015 area or 2.2 million acres is at its lowest since 2009, the Southeast yield of 917 pounds per harvested acre is the third highest on record.

In the Delta, the 2015 cotton crop is only expected to reach 2.2 million bales, the smallest output since 1983, since, favourable alternatives reduced cotton area by one-third in 2015 to less than 1 million acres, a record low.

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