Early data for the first quarter of 2008 are mixed. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance dropped back to just over 300,000 per week after having risen above 350,000 per week in November and December, and consumer sentiment rebounded in the first half of January, recouping nearly all of the loss recorded over the previous two months.
At the same time, regional measures of manufacturing activity point to a weakening factory sector, and homebuilder confidence remains close to a record low. Private forecasters generally expect growth to remain sluggish, with consensus forecasts around 1-1/2 percent for the first half of 2008.