Economic experts warn of risk of recession globally by end of 2024

With growth expectations for 2024 below average, concerns have been raised regarding the likelihood of a recession in various nations. While the survey did not provide confidence intervals for growth forecasts, many experts anticipate notably lower growth rates, potentially leading to recessionary conditions in some countries.

On average, experts remain cautiously optimistic about avoiding a recession, yet regional disparities are evident. In Eastern Europe and South America, the probability of recession stands at an average of 34 per cent. Similarly, experts in Northern and Western Europe, along with Northern America, express heightened concerns, with probabilities ranging from 30 per cent to 33 per cent.

Despite these regional trends, individual country analysis reveals substantial divergence in recession expectations. For instance, while North Macedonia faces a modest 8 per cent likelihood of recession, Bosnia and Herzegovina braces for a significant 60 per cent probability. Notably, major economies such as Ukraine, Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands exhibit heightened concerns, with probabilities hovering around 38 per cent, the survey revealed.

In Southern Asia, Southern Africa, and Central America and the Caribbean, experts express greater confidence in avoiding recession, with probabilities ranging from 18 per cent to 22 per cent. However, countries like Ecuador and Argentina, grappling with recent recessions, anticipate high probabilities of 48 per cent and 61 per cent, respectively.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)