Global cotton production to be lower in 2015-16

20 Apr '16

4 min read

Despite lower exports by the US, most major cotton exporting countries are projected to have increased shipments in 2015-16. The decrease for the US is largely attributable to this season's reduced crop, which limited exportable supplies. Cotton exports for India are forecast near 5.8 million bales in 2015-16, up 37 per cent from a year ago. Australia's exports are expected to expand to nearly 2.8 million bales, or 15 per cent above the 2014-15 level. Meanwhile, cotton exports by Brazil are projected at 4.3 million bales in 2015-16, 10 percent higher than last season.

With world cotton consumption exceeding production for the first time in several seasons, global 2015-16 ending stocks are estimated to decline 9 per cent from 2014-15's record to 102.2 million bales. USDA's April world stock reduction of 1.1 million bales was attributable to a number of estimate revisions, including lower beginning stocks, lower production, and higher consumption.

The largest stock revisions in April were noted for China and India, where ending stocks were reduced 500,000 bales and 350,000 bales, respectively, due to larger demand projections. At the end of 2015-16, these two countries are forecast to control 73 per cent of global cotton stocks; by comparison, Brazil and the US - the next largest stock holders - together will account for 9 per cent of the total in 2015-16. Based on the latest estimate, the global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 93 per cent, down from 102 per cent last season and compared with a recent low of 40 per cent in 2009-10. (SH)

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