• Linkdin

India's Economic Survey projects baseline GDP growth of 6.5% for FY24

31 Jan '23
2 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

India’s latest Economic Survey has projected a baseline gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in real terms for fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). The growth in the 6-6.8 per cent range—less than the 7 per cent forecast for FY23—is possible due to certain advantages India has over other nations amid the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the government hopes.

The Survey document cited limited health and economic fallout for the rest of the world from the current COVID surge in China, leaving supply chains intact in many nations including India.

"The projection is broadly comparable to the estimates provided by multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF [International Monetary Fund], and the ADB [Asian Development Bank] and by RBI [Reserve Bank of India], domestically. The actual outcome for real GDP growth will probably lie in the range of 6 per cent to 6.8 per cent, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally," the document said.

As advanced economies face ‘recessionary tendencies’, while India's inflation remains below 6 per cent, the country may see more inflow of money, it noted. This will lead to an ‘improvement in animal spirits’ and increase private sector investment.

The growth will be backed by ‘solid domestic demand and a pickup in capital investment’, it said.

Fears of a recession, however, have been heightened by mass layoffs by Big Tech in recent weeks.

But the risks are high as well, especially from global factors. A long period of inflation has forced central banks across the world to tighten financial conditions, the survey said, adding this tightening is visible now in the form of slowing economic activity in advanced economies.

The domestic inflation rate peaked at 7.8 per cent in April last year, the survey noted.

"Another risk to the outlook originates from the ongoing monetary tightening exercise. While the pace of rate hikes has slowed, major central banks have reaffirmed their hawkish stance on inflation," the document said.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

Leave your Comments

Esteemed Clients

Woolmark Services India Pvt. Ltd.
Weitmann & Konrad GmbH & Co. KG
VNU Exhibitions Asia
USTER
UBM China (Shanghai)
Tuyap Tum Fuarcilik Yapim A.S.
TÜYAP IHTISAS FUARLARI A.S.
Tradewind International Servicing
Thermore (Far East) Ltd.
The LYCRA Company Singapore  Pte. Ltd
Thai Trade Center
Thai Acrylic Fibre Company Limited
X
Advanced Search