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World cotton trade to rebound in 2011/12
16 Aug '11
5 min read
China is forecast to import 15.0 million bales in 2011/12, up 25 percent from the previous year. If realized, these will be the second highest imports on record, supported by a rebuilding of stocks and an official policy aimed at holding cotton reserves to boost domestic prices. Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.7 million bales and 2.0 million bales in 2011/12, up 4 percent and 11 percent, respectively, from the previous year. At the current forecasts, Bangladesh's share of global imports will be 10 percent and Indonesia's share will be 5 percent. Pakistan and South Korea are forecast to import 1.1 million bales each, a 24-percent decline in Pakistan and a 5-percent increase in South Korea from a year earlier. In Turkey, 2011/12 imports are forecast at 3.4 million bales, unchanged from the previous year.
Global Mill Use and Ending Stocks to Rebound in 2011/12
Global cotton consumption in 2011/12 is forecast at 115.2 million bales, up 1 percent from a year earlier, as demand by major mill users weakens. China—the world's leading cotton consumer—is forecast to consume 46.0 million bales in 2011/12, representing no change from the previous year. India and Pakistan are projected to consume 20.5 million bales and 10.3 million bales, up nearly 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Brazil and Turkey are forecast to use 4.6 million bales and 5.9 bales in 2011/12, an increase of 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, from the preceding year. Mill use in the United States in expected to remain unchanged from the previous year at 3.8 million bales.
World 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast at 52.7 million bales, a 17-percent increase from a year ago, representing nearly half (46 percent) of global consumption. China's 2011/12 ending stocks are expected to increase 17 percent from the previous year to 13.6 million bales. Ending stocks in Brazil and India are forecast at nearly 8.0 million bales and 9.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 9 percent and 22 percent, respectively, from the preceding year. Ending stocks in Turkey and the United States are projected to rise 21 percent and 16 percent, to 1.9 million bales and 3.3 million bales, respectively, from the previous year.
Global Mill Use and Ending Stocks to Rebound in 2011/12
Global cotton consumption in 2011/12 is forecast at 115.2 million bales, up 1 percent from a year earlier, as demand by major mill users weakens. China—the world's leading cotton consumer—is forecast to consume 46.0 million bales in 2011/12, representing no change from the previous year. India and Pakistan are projected to consume 20.5 million bales and 10.3 million bales, up nearly 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Brazil and Turkey are forecast to use 4.6 million bales and 5.9 bales in 2011/12, an increase of 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, from the preceding year. Mill use in the United States in expected to remain unchanged from the previous year at 3.8 million bales.
World 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast at 52.7 million bales, a 17-percent increase from a year ago, representing nearly half (46 percent) of global consumption. China's 2011/12 ending stocks are expected to increase 17 percent from the previous year to 13.6 million bales. Ending stocks in Brazil and India are forecast at nearly 8.0 million bales and 9.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 9 percent and 22 percent, respectively, from the preceding year. Ending stocks in Turkey and the United States are projected to rise 21 percent and 16 percent, to 1.9 million bales and 3.3 million bales, respectively, from the previous year.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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