For 2012/13, the U.S. share of global trade is projected to rebound modestly to 32 percent. Limited U.S. export growth is expected, however, due to reduced foreign import demand and record foreign stocks, although nearly a third of these are being held in national reserves by China.
U.S. cotton mill use for 2012/13 is forecast at 3.5 million bales, slightly above the latest 2011/12 estimate of 3.4 million bales, the lowest in more than a century.
With slow growth predicted for the world economy and global cotton use, demand for U.S. cotton textile products is also expected to see limited expansion in 2012/13.
Consumer demand for cotton apparel products will likely mirror the movement in the global economy.
With U.S. cotton production projected to exceed demand for the second consecutive season, 2012/13 ending stocks are forecast to rise once again. Stocks are projected at 4.9 million bales on July 31, 2013, 1.5 million bales above the beginning level and the highest in four seasons.
The stocks-to-use ratio is predicted at 32 percent, up 9 percentage points from 2011/12 but only slightly above the 5-year average. Based on these initial supply and demand projections, the 2012/13 U.S. upland farm price is expected to range between 65 and 85 cents per pound. At the midpoint of the range, the farm price would be 16 cents below the 2011/12 estimate of 91 cents.
2011/12 Demand and Stocks Unchanged in May
U.S. cotton demand in 2011/12 remains estimated at 14.8 million bales; exports are expected to reach 11.4 million bales while mill use is estimated at 3.4 million bales. With supply marginally higher as a result of the final 2011 production estimates, ending stocks remain estimated at 3.4 million bales in 2011/12. The implied stocks-to-use ratio is 23 percent, the highest in several years.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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