So where do we go from here? From a technical point of view the market has started to flag sideways, and this congestion pattern will soon be resolved by March either taking out the 84.00 cents high or by breaking below a near-term uptrend line that runs through around 82.30 cents at the moment. If this uptrend line is broken, it will probably send the specs to the sidelines and preclude further upside momentum. Given what we currently see on the fundamental side (Certified stock increasing, futures above cash price, Chinese holidays approaching, index fund roll), we feel that the odds are in favor of a correction. Such a setback could send the March contract down to somewhere around 78-80 cents and it would likely bring carryings back to the board.
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.jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "UBM China (Shanghai)")
-Ltd..jpg?tr=w-120,h-60,c-at_max,cm-pad_resize,bg-ffffff "Thermore (Far East) Ltd.")
