China's policy to influence 2013 cotton outlook - NCC

According to Adams, “Both in the current marketing year and the year to come, the most important unknown is the extent to which China releases cotton from the reserves.”

In the current marketing year, the government has commenced sales from the reserves. For the 2013 marketing year, China’s decision regarding sales from the reserves and the allocation of import quotas/licenses is the key uncertainty.

Should they choose to be a more active seller in the coming year, China’s imports could fall to the required World Trade Organization (WTO) quota of 4.1 million bales.  However, China could also go to the other extreme and choose to sell very little of their reserves. Under that scenario, imports could increase to levels comparable to the current marketing year.

According to Adams, “Such an outcome is more bullish for U.S. exports in the short term, but the scenario only delays the inevitable outcome of working the cotton reserves back onto the market.”

“The coming year is shaping up to be a challenging year where uncertainties regarding the market are magnified by the 40-million bale gorilla that is China’s government reserves,”  Adams said.

After consecutive declines, cotton demand has stabilized and is expected to grow in the coming year. However, the battle for market share with man-made fibers has never been fiercer. With a recovering global economy, there is excellent potential for growth in cotton demand. However, that full potential will not be realized as long as China continues to operate their current policy in a manner that stifles cotton demand.

NCC economists assume for 2013 that China will continue to build government reserves, holding 38.8 million bales on July 31, 2014. In order to supply projected mill use of 34.3 million bales, China would import 6.8 million bales, which includes the WTO-required quota of 4.1 million bales. Under this scenario, total imports for the 2013 marketing year are slightly more than half the import level for the current marketing year.

Reduced imports by China are only partially offset by increased imports in other countries, leading to a decline in world trade from 38.9 million bales to 36.0 million bales. With a reduction in exportable supplies, the United States is projected to see a decline in exports for the 2013 marketing year, down 1.6 million to 10.6 million bales.

When combined with mill use of 3.5 million bales, total use of 14.1 million bales exceeds the U.S. crop by 1.2 million bales. Ending stocks for the 2013 marketing year fall to 3.6 million bales, giving a stocks-to-use ratio of 25%.

Outside of China, mill use is expected to increase in 2013 while production is expected to decrease. The relative balance between production anduse causes world stocks outside of China to decrease by 4.4 percent to 39.3 million bales by the end of the 2013 marketing year.

National Cotton Council