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NY cotton futures slightly high last week

23 Feb '13
4 min read

The trade may get out of its short in a number of ways. One possibility is for upward momentum to stall, which would force the specs to abandon their longs and to possibly go short, thereby allowing the trade to cover profitably. However, what seems more likely at this point is that the trade is going to use every dip to buy back shorts, which should keep the market well supported. Potential danger may come from hedge funds committing to more longs, which could push the market into a short-covering rally.

From a fundamental point of view the market is getting decent support as well, as physical prices are beginning to catch up to the futures market, which has been running ahead in recent weeks. Indian prices took a big jump this week and are closing the gap to African and US offers. Mills are reporting decent yarn margins and there are still a lot of holes to fill as far as coverage in the second and third quarter is concerned.

All in all it adds up to a market that has very good underlying support and should hold above 80 cents in the foreseeable future. The market’s upside potential depends on how the trade’s short position gets resolved over the next couple of months.

Plexus Cotton Limited

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