Home / Knowledge / News / Textiles / NY futures continue to decline this week
NY futures continue to decline this week
01
Jun '13
The futures market reminds us of a deflating tire from which the air is slowly but surely seeping out, as the July contract had eight consecutive losing sessions for a total drop of 624 points.

The main culprit behind the market’s weakness is the dismal technical picture, which is prompting speculators to get out of long positions. However, the trade is complicit in the market’s downturn, as it hasn’t been doing much to stop the bleeding.

Interestingly, while the futures market has hit the skids, physical prices have held up comparatively well. Although July is down by over 14 cents from its 94.20 high on March 15, physical prices have lost only about half of that.

For example, prices paid by mills for high-grade West African styles have fluctuated between 90.00 and 97.00 cents C&F Far East during that same time frame, and merchants seem to be in no hurry to discount the relatively small unsold inventory they still own, especially since the market is now offering a decent amount of carry.  

While most markets remained relatively quiet this week despite the drop in prices, Chinese buyers were rather active, especially in non-US growths. Reports from Australia indicate that China bought large amounts of cotton over the last two weeks and they seem to be hungry for more, although unsold supplies are apparently down the last 20-25% of the crop.

With Chinese domestic prices frozen near 140 cents/lb, a drop in international prices provides a big incentive to import, provided there are quotas available. By participating in the “3-for-1” scheme (buy three domestics bales at auction and get one bale of imports), mills have already earned the right to 2.9 million bales in additional quotas and this number increases daily.

Another way to import is to simply pay the full 40% duty, in which case no quotas are necessary. This of course only makes sense when international prices are below a certain threshold. With the A-index slipping below 90 cents again, international prices are now within a couple of cents of making these 40% duty imports viable, which should provide massive support underneath the market.

The much hyped-up rain event in West Texas over the Memorial Day weekend failed to deliver as advertised. A few stations did get a decent amount from thunderstorms, but we estimate that around 80% of the dryland acreage in the High Plains didn’t get much more than a sprinkle or nothing at all. In other words, the situation has hardly improved and insurance deadlines (June 1 – June 20) are fast approaching.

Therefore, barring any last minute change for the better, we are likely to see a rather high abandonment of dryland acres this season. We were somewhat surprised that the market shrugged off this disappointing news from Texas, but maybe there will be some reaction once the insurance adjusters have passed through.

So where do we go from here? The technical picture looks awful and with specs owning a fairly large net long position (6.9 million bales as per CFTC report of May 21), it is not surprising that we have been seeing some pressure from spec long liquidation. However, while charts provide a powerful trading tool in a free market environment, we should probably not lean too heavily on them when there is government interference.


Must ReadView All

Courtesy: BekaertDeslee

Textiles | On 23rd Oct 2017

BekaertDeslee to expand North American facility

BekaertDeslee, one of the largest manufacturer of mattress textiles...

Courtesy: A&E

Textiles | On 23rd Oct 2017

A&E unveils Magic using Repreve sewing thread

American & Efird (A&E), a leading developer of industrial and...

Courtesy: Messe Frankfurt

Textiles | On 23rd Oct 2017

Over 4,000 exhibitors attend Intertextile Shanghai 2017

Another successful Intertextile Shanghai Apparel Fabrics has wrapped...

Interviews View All

Binoy Ravjani
Hero's Fashion

‘One of the recent trends in hand block printing is the indigo process,...

Nishank Patel
Shri Dinesh Mills Limited

Broad range of fabrics will sell well this financial year

Karan Suratwala
Key Textile Accessories Private Limited

Chinese imports are destroying the supply chain

Suresh P Bagrecha

Komal Texfab, founded in 1981, is into manufacturing of knitted fabrics,...

Vikas Banduke

Softech Controls Private Limited (SCPL) is a part of the Cotmac Group, an...

Liz Manning

<div><b>Liz Manning</b>, Business Development Manager at Catexel, has...

Silke Brand-Kirsch
Schlegel und Partner

Silke Brand-Kirsch, executive partner of Schlegel und Partner, a leading...

Giorgio Mantovani
Corman S.p.A

Giorgio Mantovani, MD of Corman, with a presence in both Milano and New...

Larry L Kinn
Suominen Corporation

Larry L Kinn, Senior Vice President - Operations Americas of Suominen...

Nisha Chanda
Whistling Woods International School of Fashion

<div>A lack of upgraded courses in costume designing and fashion as per...

Wendell Rodricks
Wendell Rodricks

"We should not compare India and the West. There are things we do that...

Akta Adani
India Boulevard

India Boulevard is a San Francisco-based curated fashion marketplace that...

Press Release

Press Release

Letter to Editor

Letter to Editor

RSS Feed

RSS Feed

Submit your press release on


editorial@fibre2fashion.com

Letter To Editor






(Max. 8000 char.)

Search Companies





SEARCH

October 2017

Subscribe today and get the latest update on Textiles, Fashion, Apparel and so on.

news category


Related Categories:

Planning to Take the Leap towards
Sustainability?

Do you see sustainability as a route to business growth?

Yes No

Do you think the sustainability space has the needed tools and resources available for a business to lead change?

Yes No

Active Poll

Do you see sustainability as a route to business growth?

Yes
76.1%
No
12.7%
Skip
11.3%

Total Votes: 71

Do you think adopting a sustainable approach will be a profitable move for your business?

Yes No

Active Poll

Do you think the sustainability space has the needed tools and resources available for a business to lead change?

Yes
62.0%
No
28.2%
Skip
9.9%

Total Votes: 71

Do you want the world to know about your sustainability journey and your business’ environmental footprint?

Yes No

Active Poll

Do you think adopting a sustainable approach will be a profitable move for your business?

Yes
85.9%
No
9.9%
Skip
4.2%

Total Votes: 71

Thanks for your valuable feedback. Claim your free latest sustainability e-book.

Active Poll

Do you want the world to know about your sustainability journey and your business’ environmental footprint?

Yes
76.1%
No
11.3%
Skip
12.7%

Total Votes: 71


E-News Insight
Subscribe Today and Get the
Latest News Update in Your Mail Box.
Advanced Search