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Low liquidity reduces cotton prices in Brazil – CEPEA
20
Sep '13
Recent decreases of international quotes and an important event of the sector in Brazil in early September, which gathered most agents, led liquidity to be low in the domestic market. This scenario pressed down quotes in Brazil.

Moreover, the real valuation against dollar quotes also led some companies to be more flexible in regard of asking prices, affecting the decrease of the price average. Between August 30 and September 16, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton type 41-4 moved down 1.09% and closed at 2.1363 real (0.9382 dollar) per pound on Sept. 16.

As for exports, Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat) data indicate that, in August/13, Brazil shipped 46.3 thousand tons of cotton, 105% higher than in July/13, but 61.3% smaller than in August/12. The average price of exports was 0.8692 dollars per pound, 6.2% more than in July/13, but 6.2% smaller compared to August/12.

As for imports, Brazil purchased 2.7 thousand tons, 41.5% lower than in July/13, but significantly higher than in the same period of 2012, when 150 thousand tons were imported. The average price of imports was 0.8936 dollars per pound, 1.4% and 54.5%, respectively, below that in July/13 and August/12.

Icac (International Cotton Advisory Committee) data released in early September indicated world production to total 25.55 million tons in the 2013/14 season and a consumption of 23.72 million tons.

Still according to Icac, world trades may total 8.8 million tons and ending stocks, at 19.22 million tons. As for prices, Icac estimates that the index for Cotlook A may change from 0.88 dollar per pound in the 2012/13 crop to 1.03 dollar per pound in the 2013/14 season.

Conab (National Company for Food Supply) data released in early September indicated that the cotton production totaled 1.3 million tons, 31.8% smaller than the 2011/12 season. The planted area was 894 thousand hectares (-35.9%) and the yield, 1,444 kilos per hectare (+6.3%).

The Company also indicates that exports may amount 530 thousand tons and stocks at the end of this year, 409.1 thousand tons – volume that would surpass domestic and international demand in the off-season period for 3.4 months, according to Conab. The harvesting is nearing the end in major producing regions in Brazil (Conab data).

Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA)

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