Home / Knowledge / News / Textiles / NY futures continue to move sideways this week
NY futures continue to move sideways this week
30
Nov '13
The market has been flat-lined in November, with the March contract closing the last 20 sessions in an extremely tight range of less than 200 points, between 77.23 and 79.19 cents/lb.

One of the reasons for this anemic market is that speculators have left the cotton market in great numbers, either by exiting altogether or by cutting back their exposure.

Looking at the latest CFTC report as of November 19, we notice that total open interest for futures and options combined amounted to just 198’866 contracts. This compares to 217’473 a year ago and 317’388 contracts on March 19, when speculators were piling in on the long side, propelling the market into the low 90s.

The exodus by speculators has been quite conspicuous! In the “Non-Commercial” category, which is made up of hedge funds and other large specs, we currently have just 69 traders active on the long side, while 77 traders are holding short positions.

Back in March the numbers were 160 traders long vs. 54 traders short and even a years ago they still amounted to 101 vs. 80. In other words, ever since the market broke support last month and flushed out a large contingent of spec longs, these players have shown no interest in getting back into the game. 

This leaves the trade in charge and when we examine its current position, we find that it is very close to what it was a year ago. On November 20, 2012, trade longs amounted to 43’751 contracts (vs. 49’690 now), while trade shorts were at 106’921 contracts (vs. 102’753 now). Even the number of traders was nearly identical, as 50 traders were on the long side (vs. 49 now), while 55 traders carried shorts (vs. 58 now).

There are definitely some striking parallels to last season, with the market’s price action showing the same weakness going into harvest and with specs, trade and index funds holding very similar net positions. The USDA painted a more negative picture back then, as the ROW (rest of the world) production surplus was estimated at 14.5 million bales vs.

Chinese imports of 11.0 million bales, whereas now the USDA projects a ROW surplus of 11.1 million bales vs. Chinese imports of 11.0 million bales. A year ago ROW ending stocks were expected to increase to a ten year high of 43.2 million bales, while they are estimated to be at just 37.9 million at the end of the current season.

Prices were a bit lower last November due to the slightly more bearish statistical picture, with March trading at around 72.50 cents. However, November marked the seasonal low and from there prices started to steadily rise, eventually settling into a range that saw the market trade between 82 and 94 cents for the remainder of the season. What prompted prices to rise a year ago and are we going to follow the same pattern this time around?

The single most important reason for prices to trend higher last season was the fact that Chinese imports proved to be greatly underestimated. Instead of the 11.0 million bales the USDA estimated Chinese imports to be last November, they ended up being over 9 million bales higher at 20.3 million bales.


Must ReadView All

Market share of Indian textile items expand in 13 nations

Textiles | On 11th Dec 2017

Market share of Indian textile items expand in 13 nations

Thirteen countries — Germany, France, Italy, the United States,...

Courtesy: EUBrasil

Textiles | On 11th Dec 2017

Euratex, ABIT welcome negotiations for EU-Mercosur FTA

European Apparel and Textile Confederation (Euratex) and the...

Most firms expect no change in investment plans: CII survey

Textiles | On 11th Dec 2017

Most firms expect no change in investment plans: CII survey

Despite visible optimism in Indian industry with the Confederation of ...

Interviews View All

Karan Toshniwal
Orange O Tec

Contemporary industry is paying more and more attention to the...

Pratik Bachkaniwala
Palod Himson Machines

Fabric processing machines are picking up

Hannah Lane
Redress

Encouragement from brands will motivate supply chains to become more...

Abhishek Pachauri

Reckon Industries adapts latest systems for manufacturing from designing...

Vikas Banduke

Softech Controls Private Limited (SCPL) is a part of the Cotmac Group, an...

Liz Manning

<div><b>Liz Manning</b>, Business Development Manager at Catexel, has...

Eamonn Tighe
Nature Works LLC

Eamonn Tighe, Fibres and Nonwovens - Business Development Manager of...

Mohammad Hassan
Biax Fiberfilm

About one in every 20 patients picks up an infection while hospitalised....

Lynda Kelly
Suominen Corporation

Suominen Corporation is a manufacturer of nonwovens as roll goods for...

Sidharth Sinha
Sidharth Sinha

<b>Sidharth Sinha</b> has contributed to the successful rebirth and...

Karan Arora
Karan Arora

Bridal couture created with rich Indian heritage, exquisite craftsmanship...

Silvia Venturini Fendi
Fendi s.r.l

"Yes, my confidence and positive attitude are my strengths and should be...

Press Release

Press Release

Letter to Editor

Letter to Editor

RSS Feed

RSS Feed

Submit your press release on


editorial@fibre2fashion.com

Letter To Editor






(Max. 8000 char.)

Search Companies





SEARCH

December 2017

Subscribe today and get the latest update on Textiles, Fashion, Apparel and so on.

news category


Related Categories:

Planning to Take the Leap towards
Sustainability?

Do you see sustainability as a route to business growth?

Yes No

Do you think the sustainability space has the needed tools and resources available for a business to lead change?

Yes No

Active Poll

Do you see sustainability as a route to business growth?

Yes
69.2%
No
12.1%
Skip
18.7%

Total Votes: 91

Do you think adopting a sustainable approach will be a profitable move for your business?

Yes No

Active Poll

Do you think the sustainability space has the needed tools and resources available for a business to lead change?

Yes
61.5%
No
30.8%
Skip
7.7%

Total Votes: 91

Do you want the world to know about your sustainability journey and your business’ environmental footprint?

Yes No

Active Poll

Do you think adopting a sustainable approach will be a profitable move for your business?

Yes
86.8%
No
9.9%
Skip
3.3%

Total Votes: 91

Thanks for your valuable feedback. Claim your free latest sustainability e-book.

Active Poll

Do you want the world to know about your sustainability journey and your business’ environmental footprint?

Yes
81.3%
No
8.8%
Skip
9.9%

Total Votes: 91


E-News Insight
Subscribe Today and Get the
Latest News Update in Your Mail Box.
Advanced Search