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ICE Cotton Futures lose almost 200 pts this week
May '14
Sell the rumor, sell the fact continued as game-changing rains in Texas helped ICE Cotton futures lose almost 200 pts basis Z4 and just under 50 pts basis the old crop N4. The rains have analysts increasing their 14/15 US production and ending stocks figures by anywhere from 1 to 3 million bales, although additional rains will be needed in a timely fashion to get anywhere near the top end of the range. 
USDA Export sales reported were considered disappointing by the market, which had been expecting another strong report following the Chinese conference which ended during the reporting week, but in reality the previous week was more like a one-off. 
In any case, commitments currently outpace the USDA’s WASDE export target, so we’ll need net cancellations in the next 10 weeks in order to avoid overshooting. Cert stocks have started to reverse on the dip, and mill fixations picked up as N4 on call sales fell almost 30% in the reporting period – and likely continued falling to end the week. This suggests that N4 is likely to find some near-term support.
In macro news, Us 2014 Q1 GDP growth was revised lower to -1% annualized, the lowest since 2011. Analysts interpreted this positively, however, as it was attributed to temporary weather factors and inventory building.
The stock market was unfazed too with the setting all-time highs again above 1900. Investor money has pulled back from the long side of ag commodities but with low rates continuing, fund flow will not be too far away.


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