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ICE Cotton Futures show well established trends
Aug '14
After another week of declines, the 12th of the last 13 weeks, the trend is more than well established. December settled the week at 63.27 down another 208 points on the week. Right now the mills are content with prices coming down, while the producers are feeling the pain of being long in a falling market.

The trick is figuring when this market will finally turn around and no one is keen on trying to catch a falling knife. Last week we mentioned the Oct 2009 low of 59.64 as a possible point of attraction for the market price and that price looks much more attainable after this week of trading; however, market studies indicate that cotton is over-sold at these levels.

There was some sharp buying around to bring the market up. Could just be some specs taking off their shorts to get some weekend beer money but it could indicate more. Next week will give us a much better indication of where we are headed.

Futures and options trading were higher this week than in weeks past. Options volumes have been especially high with trade volumes equal to or surpassing that of futures; however, the majority of these options have been crosses and not traded openly on the market. We can’t gain too much market information from these trades but they do indicate that there are some big players moving their positions around.


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