Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose for the second successive month in June 2015 to a nine-month high on the back of a broad based increase in upside pressures, belying consensus expectations. The sharp month-on-month increase in food and non-food items overwhelmed the sizable 'base effect' in that month. Food inflation rose 60 basis points over the preceding month, driven by a spike in prices of vegetables, protein items - especially pulses, meat and milk - and spices.

Furthermore, excluding food and fuel, inflation rose in respect of all subgroups other than housing. The momentum of price increases remained high for education. Inflation pressures increased for personal care and effects and household goods and services sub-groups. Inflation in CPI excluding food, fuel, petrol and diesel has been rising steadily since April and exceeded headline inflation through Q1.

Near-term inflation expectations of households returned to double digits after two quarters, although those of professional forecasters remained anchored. Rural wage growth was moderate but there are indications of incipient pressures from corporate staff costs.

Headwinds from weak global demand conditions restrained merchandise exports. The contraction in exports in Q1 of 2015-16, both volume and value, was the steepest since Q2 of 2009-10. The sharp fall in international commodity prices - especially crude oil - compressed import payments, helping to narrow the trade deficit. Domestic production shortages and lower international prices were, however, evident in higher imports of electronic goods, pulses, iron ore and fertilisers.

Net surpluses on account of trade in services were sustained in Q1 and have, along with the lower trade deficit, helped reduce the current account deficit (CAD). Despite slowing portfolio flows, other forms of foreign capital flows such as foreign direct investment and non-resident deposits were sustained. With the shrinking external financing requirement, reserves were built up to an all-time high at the end of June, providing a buffer against adverse global shocks.

RBI said the outlook for growth is improving gradually. Favourable real income effects could accrue from weaker commodity prices, in particular crude oil, and a possible step-up in agricultural activity if monsoon conditions continue to improve. On the other hand, global growth projections for 2015 have generally been revised downwards and, therefore, the export contraction could become a prolonged drag on growth going forward. Notwithstanding some improvement in the state of stalled projects, supply constraints continue to be binding and new investment demand emanating from the private sector and the Central Government remains subdued.

On an assessment of the evolving balance of risks, RBI has retained the projected output growth for 2015- 16 at 7.6 per cent. (RKS)

Fibre2Fashion News Desk – India