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Market continues to hold upside trend line
01
Jan '08
Trading has been fairly active during the last session of the year. Futures volume was decent at 19,000 lots, but options were seen less interest with its combined 6,000 contracts.

End of the year profit taking was seen early during the day, and open outcry was called to open around 40 points lower in line with lower electronic trading.

As open interest was increased by another 2,200 contracts during last Friday's session, or 5,200 over the 3 day week, it's easy to see that funds want to end the year with a bang. Market was lingering around 10 lower for the majority of the session but broke through Mar08 68 cent level and closed at today's high.

Today's spec hedge report was of no surprise. With consistent increase in the open interest over the week, for the week to December 28, spec longs were increased by 7,231 contracts, while the shorts were decreased by 3,887 contracts. Actual net long contracts are now 59,196 and net position is 25.5% long.

Technically, we continue to hold the upside trend line started in early December and closed above the resistance level of 68 cents on Mar08. RSI is close to 66% and the specs are adding back to their long positions. The 9 and 50 day moving averages have crossed each other during today's session, and we may have an opportunity to make a run at 70 cents nearby.

As specs are keeping their book prices high, there will likely be scale up trade selling which will keep a lid on the market short term.

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