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Market sees further pull back
05
Jan '08
Market saw further pull back and range bound trading Friday. Estimated volume was 22,000 contracts in futures and 13,000 contracts combined in options. ICE was called to open lower on slight loss in overnight grains market. All months quickly hit today's lows before pit open and slid slowly back up during the day. Late session buying activities pushed the settlement close to unchanged.

This morning's US export report was exceptionally weak but expected as the dull holiday season has led to an inactive market. New sales were sharply declined from the week before with 68,400 running bales upland and pima combined. The major buyer was China with 26,300 bales. Shipments dropped to 190,250 running bales combined with 25,200 bales leaving for China and 15,200 bales leaving for Turkey.

According to one analyst, the world freight index BDI, which measures the worldwide exports of dry goods such as agricultural products and coal etc., has tumbled 20% from last fall. This week's grains sales were also poor. This index might be a key indicator of the health of the overall world economy and makes us wonder when the demand will start to pick up.

Technically, we continue to trade in the range set by Wednesday's session in correction of the overbought market. Resistance at 69 cents on March contract is holding firm. Market has been dull during the holiday season, and this morning's export report, anticipated but worse than that, shows dramatic drop from the weekearlier.

As no fundamental news is around to trade on and as long as outside commodities markets continue to be strong, cotton might feel the pressure to follow. However, scale up trade selling interest will pose a lid on the market short term. We expect to see market trading range bound for the upcoming sessions in search for direction.

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ECOM USA Inc


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